The 95 Percent Bet
Henry is buying a $1,869 MacBook. Mima is the underwriter. The odds are mostly fine.
Probability of delivery
95%Do not touch the slider. Henry already crunched the numbers.
Panic Station
For when the delivery notification has not arrived yet.
Wheel of Misfortune
19 green slices mean Henry survives. 1 red slice means it is over. The wheel is calibrated to Henry's anxiety, so bad luck is suspiciously common.
95/5
95% - good things
- Delivery Success
- Mima's money safe
- No porch pirates
- Gubby approves
- Furnace survives
5% - catastrophes
- Stolen by FedEx
- Allison finds out
- Porch pirate takes it
- Intel furnace explodes
- $1,869 completely gone
Henry's financial status
MacBook invoice$1,869
Henry's balance$1,088.15
Balance coverage58.2%
Shortfall: $780.85 - Mima territory.
Mima bailout fund
Total shortfall$780.85
Mima sends$0.00
Henry still owes$780.85
The Intel Furnace
Henry's current machine is not a laptop. It is a space heater with a keyboard. It hits 97°C while Henry checks email. Gubby calls it "the furnace." Its only job is to survive until the MacBook arrives.
CPU temp97°C
Gubby confidence100%
No MacBooks were actually stolen in the making of this bet. Mima has not agreed to any of this.